We are out of the recession, by most accounts.  Manufacturing output has begun to rebound, construction spending is up, and the housing market has started to stabilize.

 I am not convinced.  Another 263,000 jobs have been cut in September, and the unemployment rate has risen to 9.8%, the highest in 26 years.

 The risk is that without jobs, consumers won’t have income to spend, which will limit growth, which means employers won’t begin hiring again anytime  soon.

 If we are coming out of the recession, it is going to be at a snail’s pace without consumer spending.

Finance guy,

I am also very skeptical of the "recovery".  The DOW nearly topped resistance at 10,000 today.  Third quarter earnings for finance and banking companies are coming in strong.  These earnings are stronger quarter over quarter not on improvements in business, but on cuts in wage and other expenses.  These types of income gains are not sustainable, My money will be short going into the first quarter 2010.